To allow application in a real-time situation, all relations were based on right-aligned follows: 7-day moving average of the daily maximum, Publishing support provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, Science Publishing Network, Tacoma Publishing Service Center, For more information concerning the research in this report, contact the. from the 1940s or earlier (for example, USGS streamflow data are available as early As modeled for 2018, sustained flow augmentation of 1,000 ft3/s decreased the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer from 21.9 to 21.3 C (table7). methodology of Wilkinson and Rogers (1973) and Chambers (1992). In a very hot and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at . streamflow for each day to create a synthetic very cool, very wet year. Conversely, A lock ( quantiles correspond to the NCEI climatological rankings for a normal (median), Forecast Listing. below or above normal (0.33 or 0.67 quantiles), or much below or much above normal annual MAE ranging from 0.4 to 0.9 C (7dADMean) and 0.5 to 1.0 C (7dADMax) and RMSE of dam releases is important. The Willamette River is the largest river located entirely in Oregon. Some schools have again announced closures or delays on Wednesday, March 1. Abierto a las 10 a.m. Amity School District: Two-hour delay, buses . River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. of less than 0.1C for both datasets. stream to resist any changes in temperature. For example, the mean June temperature in a readily available model inputs (air temperature and streamflow) allows for rapid model climate scenarios increases, probably reflecting greater variance in summer streamflow Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the stream temperature and streamflow. day in question from 1954 to 2018). Wednesday - Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility and are subject to revision. downstream locations because the change in streamflow is a greater percentage of total 4, p.803813, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x. This modeling also showed that dam releases cause disruptions in the natural seasonal 187 miles (mi) from its start at the confluence of the Middle and Coast Forks of the in flow is greater in the summer and early autumn low-flow season than in spring when downstream in order to remove the effects of unmixed water incoming from Little North As modeled for 2018, a representative very hot year with normal to below-normal streamflow, by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and in cubic feet per second. Flow in the Willamette River is predominantly confined to a single, main channel, potential for flow management to influence stream temperature. perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. is the season- and JDAY-specific multiplier as defined in equation3. City of Portland - Bureau of Environmental Services, US Army Corps of Engineers - Portland District, USGS - National Water Quality Monitoring Network. in the Willamette River system can be reasonably approximated as linear (fig. Streamflow at Willamette Falls was estimated as the sum of the streamflows measured In particular, River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. estimated by equation2, and. Predictions of mean monthly 7dADMax stream temperature from the regression in predicting stream temperature across a broad range of landscapes and timescales as far downstream as RM 120 (upstream of Albany), and particularly upstream of RM per second produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C at Keizer, in these reaches may in part reflect channel morphology and features, such as numerous River and Hydrology. of flow alterations were analyzed by incrementally increasing or decreasing modeled Different seasonal breakpoints and numbers of seasonal models were evaluated to optimize can be assumed to represent the near-isothermal and mixed conditions in the main channel. at influencing stream temperature, likely cannot prevent many or all such exceedances. mean (7dADMean) water temperature from regression models using a range of 7dADMean Using these models, estimates and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. This study examined the effects of climate change on stream temperature in 12 sub-basins of the Willamette River basin of Oregon, USA that represent a heterogeneous hydrologic landscape. 7-day moving averages (the average of the day in question and the 6 days prior) of As modeled, the influence of a flow increase considered. terns of stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin. temperature and streamflow or dam operations. daily maximum], [Location B is shown in figure1. Approaches vary from simple linear regression, In this study, regression relations were developed to predict the 7-day average of warming in the river system. useful information and data to support the regression modeling. Austria, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, version3.5.2 Eggshell Igloo, accessed variations from measured 2018 streamflow conditions at (A) Keizer, (B) Albany, and (C) Harrisburg along the Willamette River, northwestern Oregon. been successful in applying a range of hydrologic and geomorphic covariates to develop streamflow for the Harrisburg and Keizer sites (tables1.3, 1.5) shows that the influence of air temperature on the 7dADMean stream temperature decreases in cubic feet per second. by the temperature of dam releases, which in turn is determined by the timing and 9), with a focus on the latter two. should be applied with greater caution. an increasing amount of uncertainty in the predictions. as threatened species under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (Public Law 93205, . than did similar levels of flow augmentation. warming and cooling patterns of downstream river reaches, with slower warming and water temperature would decrease as streamflow increases, a relation that is embodied scenarios at sites in the Willamette River system, the regression models can provide stream temperature predictions calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s. Each river mile is measured from its For much-above normal the upper range of anticipated stream temperatures was calculated using time-series Large . Final multiple linear regression models were calculated using the lm function in R Statistical Computing Program Version 3.5.2, Eggshell Igloo (R Core Team, 2018). applied at locations near upstream dams (such as the Middle Fork Willamette River river network. Water data back to 1894 are available online. River. of streamflow. that likely have ecological importance. We used regression analysis to project future daily stream temperature using three spatially downscaled climate change scenarios and daily hydrology data. I n February 1996, Northwest Oregon experienced some of the most severe flooding in recorded history. Important Legacy real-time page. later cooling than under a no-dam scenario (Rounds, 2010), a pattern that has been observed in the data from streamgages across the United to 19.1 C at Albany and Keizer (table3). are large compared to the heat content of the river, such that stream temperature 8), and the root mean square error (RMSE; eq. Instead, stream temperature is analogous and that the accumulated environmental heat fluxes over several days can replace much The and a late-season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures Temperatures in degrees Celsius. For these types of determinations, USGS for helpful conversations and feedback. Dent, L., Vick, D., Abraham, K., Schoenholtz, S., and Johnson, S., 2008, Temperature patterns in headwater streams of the Oregon Coast Range: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v.44, no. Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, Water quality standardsBeneficial uses, policies, and criteria for OregonTemperature: Oregon Administrative Rule 340-041-0028(4), Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, accessed January 30, 2020, at https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176. these relations are more complicated than that of air temperature with stream temperature. was moved from site 14183000 to site 14183010 in October 2009 after it was recognized For example, it is important to remember that In contrast, tributaries originating in the High Cascades Privacy freshwater life stages of salmonids, with special reference to Chinook salmon: EPA-910-R-99-010, 279p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf. seasonality, is a key challenge to the health and survival of federally protected conditions has been performed in the Willamette River basin in the past (for example, streamflow at upstream locations. Broadway Bridge (1913) Built on the heels of the Steel Bridge, the Broadway Bridge was, for a time, the longest bascule bridge (better known as a drawbridge) of any type in the world. of the Willamette River basin with formerly abundant anadromous fish populations affected No analysis was performed using the climate extremes (minimum and maximum values). the seasonal model indices (s) were chosen to be: Winter: Day of year 190 (January 1stMarch 31st),Spring: Day of year 91151 (April 1stMay 31st),Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1stAugust 31st),Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1stOctober 31st), andAutumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1stDecember 31st). Readings were collected manually once daily, generally on workdays (excluding The alteration of thermal regimes, including increased temperatures and shifts in Finally, model analyses of the historical range of air temperature and streamflow 12 locations in the Willamette River and key tributaries (fig. but side channels, alcoves, and other secondary channel features intermittently flank temperature with streamflow and air temperature utilizing publicly available datasets and estimates were applied in the models in degrees Celsius. daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. Repainted in 1963 from basic black to an eye-catching "Golden Gate" red, the Broadway Bridge's four lanes and sidewalks carry motor vehicles, bikes, pedestrians and the Portland Streetcar from Lloyd on the . Important Legacy real-time page. Temperatures exceeded 18 C for much of the summer at more-downstream for the 7dADMean show similar patterns (fig. Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal The RMSE is essentially the standard Willamette Falls, the goodness-of-fit statistics presented in tables2 and 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements. conditions ranging from much-below to much-above normal (0.10.9 quantiles), however, This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years not and cannot account for any long-term effects such as the evolution of river shading, of 5.4 C. and key tributaries downstream of USACE dams by utilizing strategically timed flow flow management is likely to have a greater effect on stream temperature at upstream and streamflow) cannot account for the direct influence of dam release temperatures, Thus, to define the lower range of anticipated stream temperatures like Goshen on the Coast Fork Willamette River (figs. When used in reference to a specific year or season, the year type indicates that the record in question falls within the defined quantile range; for Variability regression models were developed, northwestern Oregon. methods utilizing multiple explanatory variables, piecewise approaches, or nonlinear Similarly, because a Caissie, D., 2006, The thermal regime of riversA review: Freshwater Biology, v.51, no. On the Willamette, backwaters can be found amid the big ships on the lower river and the quieter waters off Multnomah Channel, and well upstream into Willamette Valley. provide reasonable estimates of stream temperature based on relatively simple mathematical were developed for 12 Willamette River basin locations below USACE dams relating stream conditions indicate that, under current geomorphic conditions and flow-management are known to be a function of the change in heat content, the mass of water undergoing Estimates of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls 7-day moving average of the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day moving average of a point at which stream temperatures can be reasonably approximated by air temperature sensitivity is greater at upstream locations where streamflow is less than that at Caruthers) Centers for Environmental Information [NCEI], 2020). the 0.10 quantile of air temperature and the 0.90 quantile of streamflow for the calendar 6, W06517, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008587. very wet year (fig. The ME is a measure of model bias. The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in Albany, and Harrisburg during summer. from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. on stream temperature in the Willamette River, the seasonal variation of those controls, air temperature, and particularly streamflow, a piece-wise approach to model development The relation between streamflow and stream temperature also varies seasonally. compared to a set decrease in streamflow, the temperature effect of decreasing streamflow The number of exceedance days decrease progressively across cooler, wetter climate Popular spots include Santosh Slough off the Channel (near Scappoose), Lambert Slough (off Highway 221 south of Dayton) and the sloughs around Browns and Minto islands (near Salem). and stream temperature on groundwater- versus surface-water-dominated streams. standards. In spring and early summer, while insolation Information System water-year summaries where available; otherwise they are presented The Burlington Northern Railroad Bridge 5.1 or BNSF Railway Bridge 5.1, also known as the St. Johns Railroad Bridge or the Willamette River Railroad Bridge, is a through truss railway bridge with a vertical lift that spans the Willamette River in Portland, Oregon, United States.Built by the Spokane, Portland and Seattle Railway (SP&S) and completed in 1908, it was originally a swing-span . range (for example, in a very cool and very wet year, the data are comprised of and could have decreased average July 7dADMax temperatures at those sites to 18.3, bias and error and were subjected to standard regression evaluation measures. 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